Monday, December 04, 2006

you and whose army?

I keep having conversations with people who are convinced the world is going to end soon. Not necessarily end in the sense of "Armageddon" or anything metaphysical like that. They are generally intelligent and well educated people, they have professional jobs and families; the combination of peak oil and global warming has them freaked out that there is going to be some kind of a civilization collapse.

As cynical and pessimistic as I am, I just don't see it though. If we do cross peak oil before significant alternative-energy infrastructure has been created I can definitely see a serious global economic downturn. If the worst-case global warming scenarios turn out to be correct I can see a serious refugee crisis combined with a global economic downturn. I can't see civilization coming apart though. The demand for cheap plastic crap will continue and the system will adapt itself to perpetuate its production.

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